International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)

Source ID:00000001
Volume 10, Issue 1,January 2019, Pages 1561-1568, Page Count - 8

MODELLING INSTRUMENTS IN RISK MANAGEMENT

Bondarenko Svitlana (1) Bodenchuk Liliya (2) Krynytska Oksana (3) Gayvoronska Inna (4)

(1) Department of Economic Management of Natural Resources, Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Frantsuzky Boulevard, Odessa, Ukraine.
(2) Department of Economics and Management, Pridunai branch, Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, Izmail, Ukraine.
(3) Department of Economic Theory and Financial-Economic Security, Odessa National Academy of Food Technologies, Odessa, Ukraine.
(4) Department of Marketing and Business Administration, Odessa I. I. Mechnikov National University, Odessa, Ukraine.

Manuscript ID:- 00000-21090
Access Type : Open Access
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Cite this article:Bondarenko Svitlana,Bodenchuk Liliya,Krynytska Oksana,Gayvoronska Inna,  Modelling Instruments In Risk Management, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology(IJCIET), 2019, 10(1), PP.1561-1568

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Abstract

Methods of modelling risks can be considered as a kind of simulation of the future in laboratory conditions. Since the program chooses the values of input variables from random probability distributions, each resulting result reflects the possible state of affairs in the future. Each of these combinations can actually be realized, and with the same degree of probability. Therefore, the results are also possible in the future and are equally likely. The proposed method allows to select, according to certain criteria, the necessary risk indicators for their further study. The economic interpretation of various aspects of the results of managerial analysis obtained during the calculation of indicators is based on an integrated factor model for assessing the efficiency of the enterprise, and the visualization of the results of the analysis of indicators is carried out using such a tool as a managerial monitor. The second instrument – simulation method – allows obtaining more accurate results of calculating the influence of factors in comparison with the methods of chain substitution, absolute and relative differences, integral, logarithm, index and proportional distribution, and allows avoiding ambiguous evaluation of the influence of factors, because in this case the results does not depend on the location of the factors in the model, and the additional increment of the effective indicator, which is formed from the interaction of factors, decomposes between them proportions It is also an indicator of influence.
Author Keywords
Modelling risk risk management three-factor model two-dimensional space
Acknowledgement
The publication contains the results of studies conducted by Presidents of Ukraine grant for competitive project ? 0118U005233 «Formation mechanisms of strategic management in national security of Ukraine area based on innovation system systemic stability» of the State Fund for Fundamental Research.


ISSN Print: 0976-6308 ISSN Online: 0976-6316
Source Type: Journals Document Type: Journal Article
Publication Language: English DOI: 10.34218/IJCIET.10.1.2019.143
Abbreviated Journal Title: IJCIET Access Type: Open Access
Publisher Name: IAEME Publication Resource Licence: CC BY-NC
Major Subject:Physical Sciences Subject Area classification: Engineering and Technology
Subject area: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality Source: SCOPEDATABASE

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